Connect with us

Making Money

Market mind: Inflation Anxiety, Yet S&P 500 Keeps On Running

Published

on

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indic. Jerome Powell and his band of brothers on the Federal Open Market Committee will be sitting nervously. At 0830 EDT (1230 GMT), the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest consumer price data, which could go some way to determining what the Federal Reserve does with policy at its two-day meeting beginning Tuesday. Markets are poised for the Fed to “skip” this month after 10 consecutive rate hikes since March last year has seen its interest rate rise to 5-5.25% from 0-0.25%, the most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. But first, inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect price pressures to have moderated last month, with the headline consumer price index falling to 4.1% on an annual basis from 4.9% the prior month. Core inflation is seen moderating to 5.3% in May “The big question from the CPI will be how it affects the Fed’s policy decision tomorrow,” said Deutsche Bank (ETR: Dubcon) strategists led by Jim Reid. Money market traders are pricing around a three-in-four chance the Fed keeps rates on hold and a one-in-four shot of a 25 basis point hike. Another stubborn inflation reading could see a shift in expectations. “Given there’s only a day to go, the fact that markets are still pricing in a non-trivial likelihood of a June hike shows that they’re not ready to discount the probability of a move just yet,” Reid and co. said. For now, U.S. markets are in a buoyant mood. The S&P 500 closed on Monday at its highest level since April last year and is up well over 20% from its October 2022 low – a bear market rally or a new bull market? The narrowness of the rally has some questioning whether it can be the latter, as an-often common theme across bull markets is broad participation across sectors. It’s no secret this rally has been driven mostly by large-cap tech stocks. An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, which dilutes the impact of said stocks, is up just 3.1% in 2023, yet to recover to levels seen in March before problems emerged at U.S. regional banks. European markets are still somewhat upbeat after the People’s Bank of China offered an overnight gift to bulls with a 10-basis point cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate. That cut fueled speculation that longer-term rates could fall over the coming weeks to boost an economy that has stuttered as it reopened following some of the longest and toughest COVID restrictions. Shares in the region welcomed the news, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan jumping over 1% to its highest since mid-April, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed above 33,000 for the first time in 33 years. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Making Money

China’s JD.com To Open Grocery Stores By Merging 7Fresh, Other Units

Published

on

By

Chinese e-commerce giant JD (NASDAQ: JD).com plans to open retail grocery stores through the merger of its 7Fresh supermarket unit with other business lines such as its group-buying arm Pippin, a company spokesperson said on Monday. Beyond opening actual stores, the new division will explore innovative retail models, the spokesperson told Reuters, confirming reports in local media. Yan Xiaoping, who was previously responsible for the online e-commerce platform’s international division, will take charge of the business and report to Xu Ran, CEO of JD.com, the spokesperson added. This latest development comes after JD.com laid out an ambitious 20-year blueprint earlier this month to build seven enterprises that will be valued at more than 100 billion yuan ($13.83 billion) each.
The company faces an increasingly competitive landscape, with Chinese consumers able to choose from a growing range of platforms including JD’s main rival Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) Group, PDD Holdings’ Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD) and Byte Dance’s Doujin, the Chinese equivalent of Tikor. JD.com created 7Fresh in 2017 after Alibaba introduced Freshippo, a premium physical grocery store. Alibaba said last month that it plans to kick off an IPO process for Freshippo soon as part of the company’s restructuring. In 2017, JD spun off its logistics unit into a standalone unit. It also plans to spin off its property and industrial units and list them on the Hong Kong stock exchange in deals worth $1 billion each, Reuters reported in March.

Continue Reading

Making Money

Explainer-What is Hong Kong’s New Dual HKD/RMB Share Counter?

Published

on

By

The Hong Kong stock exchange will start offering yuan-denominated Chinese stocks from Monday in what it calls a dual counter, a scheme that is seen as part of China’s efforts to increase the yuan’s use overseas. The exchange will initially target the offerings at investors holding offshore yuan. Ultimately, the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) aims to enable mainland investors to trade yuan stocks listed in Hong Kong using their onshore yuan. Here’s a look at how the yuan-denominated stock trading works, and the CNH’s role. HOW DOES THE DUAL STOCKS COUNTER WORK? The HKEX’s Dual Counter Model allows investors in Hong Kong to trade stocks concurrently in both Hong Kong dollar and the yuan. A total of 24 companies will start offering yuan counters at the scheme’s launch. The HKEX has said all shares of the same securities in the two trading counters will be fully interchangeable between counters. They will be designated as the HKD-RMB Dual Counter Securities. The yuan counter will be listed separately under a different, 5-digit stock code that begins with “8”; while the Hong Kong dollar counter will follow a 5-digit number starting with a “0” The HKEX is also rolling out a market-maker program so that any price differences between the two counters because of the yuan’s moves can be reduced. IS IT THE FIRST TIME THAT YUAN-DENOMINATED STOCKS WILL BE TRADED ON THE HKEX? No. There was a dual-currency trading precedent, when Hopewell Highway Infrastructure offered such an option of yuan shares in 2012 to investors, long after its Hong Kong shares first debuted in 2003. But the yuan counter failed to gain traction due to the significant price gap between the two trading counters. WHICH INVESTORS WILL TRADE ON THE DUAL COUNTER? The first batch of investors could be holders of offshore yuan deposits in Hong Kong, which totaled 833 billion yuan ($117 billion) at the end of April, as they look for potentially higher returns in the stock market. Yuan holders in China’s trading partner countries, such as Russia, Pakistan and the Middle East, could also be potential investors. The HKEX is working with Chinese regulators to allow mainland investors to eventually participate via the Stock Connect investment channel that connects the Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Mainland investors currently trading Hong Kong stocks through the southbound leg of the Stock Connect face an exchange rate risk, to hedge which they have to pay a 2% margin to their brokers when they submit their trade orders. Also, investors are told the exact yuan amount they have to pay or receive only at the end of each trade day. The yuan counter will mean investors will be paying the yuan price for stocks quoted in real time during trading hours. TELL ME MORE ABOUT THE OFFSHORE YUAN, OR CNH
CNH stands for offshore yuan, launched in 2003 as an experiment in creating a distinct, offshore market for yuan.
The onshore yuan is only partially convertible as China’s capital account remains largely closed. Schemes such as the Stock Connect and CNH are part of China’s efforts to gradually open up its capital market to foreigners.
The onshore yuan is largely fungible with CNH and, under normal market conditions, their exchange rates tend to move together. The onshore yuan is more managed by authorities, with the spot rate allowed to trade within a 2% range around the official daily fixing set by China’s central bank. The CNH is driven mainly by demand and supply.

Continue Reading

Making Money

Goldman’s Cost-Cutting Accelerates As Lean Times Persist

Published

on

By

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)’s managing directors were invited to meetings this month to receive an ominous message: take even more painful steps to cut costs, according to four sources familiar with the situation. Belt-tightening on the agenda for meetings of Goldman’s top executives is another sign that the firm’s ongoing push to cut $1 billion in costs is now accelerating as managers target smaller and smaller line items and contemplate more job cuts, sources said. Previously, employees were able to spend on subscriptions for websites that provide data and information. They could book a business trip to see one client and expense pricey meals. Now senior managers are needed to sign off on expenditures and travel requires seeing multiple clients, the sources said. If revenues don’t bounce back alongside the aggressive cost-cutting measures, more employees can expect to be laid off this year, one of the sources said. The bank has let go of 3,700 employees since September. Managing directors will also be given goals for budget reductions and be held responsible for delivering them, one of the sources said. “We have repeatedly emphasized our focus on expense management in this environment, and are delivering on the $1 billion plan we laid out at investor day to drive efficiencies and deliver for shareholders,” a Goldman Sachs spokesperson said in a statement. The latest round of penny-pinching comes as Goldman Sachs management grew more pessimistic about an economic recovery and dollmaking this year. Investment banking revenue for the industry is so far down nearly 46% in the second quarter from same quarter a year earlier, preliminary data from Dialogic shows for the period April 1 to June 6. Goldman Sachs investment banking revenue is down 52% in that same period, the Dealogic data showed. Goldman declined to comment on the data. Goldman’s trading revenue, which recorded its second-best year in 2022 at $25.67 billion due to market volatility, is also shrinking. But it is the firm’s ill-fated foray into retail banking that has captivated the industry because it is a rare, and public, flop for the bank. When Silicon Valley and Signature banks failed in March, Goldman staff joked that the turmoil was a blessing in disguise for CEO David Solomon because it drew attention away from the company’s travails, three sources familiar with the situation said. Now, the bank is preparing to lay off just under 250 people, including partners and managing directors in its most senior ranks. The cuts have already begun, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Since the dismissals affect fewer than 250 employees globally, Goldman Sachs does not have to issue an advance notice to employees of layoff plans under U.S. law, one of the sources said. Goldman Sachs said in February it aims to reduce payroll expenses by $600 million, a figure that President John Waldron said earlier in June it could exceed by the end of the year. Goldman is not alone in curbing costs. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is cutting 3,000 staff this quarter, Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) Ltd plans to reduce 10% of its workforce and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) also intends to pare down. But Goldman’s January layoffs were its biggest since 2008, and it is seen as a bellwether for Wall Street’s fortunes because it often occupies top rankings in banking and trading. The bank’s financial woes have put a dent in its valuation. Goldman Sachs trades at 0.97 times its book value, lagging rivals Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) which trade at 1.45 times and 1.33 times, respectively, according to Refintiv data. Investors are assessing whether Goldman’s strategy — to expand asset management alongside its traditional mainstay of trading — will bear fruit. “Goldman does have a very cyclical business,” said UBS analyst Brennan Hawken. “There’s no denying the headwinds they’re facing. It’s a clear realization that this is not temporary.” The headcount reductions and cost cutting do not solve Goldman’s fundamental challenges: its reliance on investment banking and trading. That compares with Morgan Stanley, where profits from wealth management have provided a cushion against weakness in dollmaking. “It feels pretty difficult out there right now, and challenging,” Waldron told investors at a conference on June 1. “We’re more cautious. We’re running the firm tighter.”

Continue Reading

Trending